Its about 10 days from 14th Loksabha results. Not clear but "almost there" majority to UPA. A verdict to be in power for 2nd turn in succession.
What does this mean? Upfront one can say stable govt, people's faith in previous govt, defeat of Advani's leadership and many such things. But, we think a bit over it and try to read between the lines then??.....
Results have surprised exit poll specialist again this time. UPA (and Congi as individually) have done better than expected and 3rd front has lost a lot of ground. NDA total is in same range as predicted by all, but UPA snatching considerable number of seats from Left and from others has spoiled the game for Advani. (and for Sharad Pawar, and for Mayawati, and for...... oh list is too long :-) )
How did UPA managed this? Left had nearly 60 seats in previous assembly thanx to Kerala and West Bengal. This time they have lost both these state. Congi did well in Kerala and TMC+Congi swept WB. 3rd front partner BSP lost some ground in UP and Congi has made considerable come back after over 4 assembly elections. And some brillient performance in Punjab, Rajasthan and haryana along with other small states. Good show UPA! Congrats!
But, its not all well for UPA. Heavy weights like Manishankar Aiyar, Margaret Alva, Renuka Choudhary lost their seats. Maharashtra results are not very promising if compared with National level success. but, few loop holes are always going to remain.
As expected, once u r winner, everyone is on your side. NCP chief is quite now days. Letters of unconditional support started flowing from all sides. (even from forth front parties, who will keep wondering why did they chose to be 4th when their "laalten" was shinning well on indian railways) And two new power partyies of govt: TMC and DMK. Now days they seem to be stretching benefits as much as possible, but as time pases they will be sensible enuf to stretch it in limits.
What is the future? Future seems to be stable for next 5 yrs. But beyond that it will be interesting to see. In al probabilities this was last chance for Advani but at the same time voters have given verdict of more or less bipolar politics. That is something interesting. If bipolar politics is the future, where is NDA's future? Who is going to lead them? Where is generation next? On the other hand UPA young brigade is gaining strength day by day. Rahul Gandhi was given responsibility of UP few yrs back. Now it has started showing some results. His popularity is increasing day by day. Along with him other young politicians like Jotiraditya Sinida, Sachin Pilot, Milind Deora are expected to get berth in next cabinet expansion which is expected to be young minister focussed. Does that mean, it was not just last chance for Advani, but also for NDA? Will young brigade gain sufficient power by 2014 to sweep all votes acros nation? Or will NDA be able to get their team in place to be in contention? Let the time answer these questions.
All in all, good result for economy. A stable govt with key posts in considered to be good hands (PM, Home, Defence, Finance). Lets hope the strategies work for u n me and govt cruises us safely thru this reccession and get us back on growth path.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Elections 2009: State perspective
Results are out about 5 days back. Maharashtra scores: Cong: 17, NCP: 8, BJP, 9, Sena: 11, MNS: 0
but it is not tht simple. If we consider the state assembly elections which are just around the corner, I guess this was just the trailer. And real drama is yet to begin.
The much talked MNS factor may be the tip of ice berg. MNS had candidates in 11 constituencies, of which they managed to be cause of defeat in 6 seat. What I mean by cause of defeat is MNS votes + NDA votes > UPA votes. The closest among these was Noerth-East Mumbai seat where NCP won by 3k votes (NCP: 2.13 lacs, BJP: 2.10 lacs, MNS: 1.94 lacs).
But real surprise came from South Mumbai. MNS secured 2nd number of votes against Deora. Although margin was so big that Sena + MNS were faling short of Deora's total, but still it is a great rsult for 3 yr old party. And which was the best result for them? Nashik: NCP 2.39 lacs, MNS: 2.17 lacs, Sena: 1.58 lacs.
These are mere facts. Even if Sena supremos do not agree to this, but MNS factor has hit NDA badly.
But, this is just one side of story. Consider from where these MNS votes hav come! What were marketing points for MNS? 1. Marathi Manus 2. Charisma of Raj Thakrey. Has MNS managed this success (or rathwer success in defeat) on basis of these two points alone? Are the votes all diverted from Sena's "marathi manus" backbone? If we consider this to be true, then UPA, better u do ur math again. Why is this marathi manus not ready to come to you? If Raj Thakrey would have been with Sena then current UPA- NDA score of 25-20 would have dramatically changed to 18 - 27. (May be that is the reason why Joshi Sir, Munde and Gadkari hinted about joining hands with MNS.) And the above said assumption also tells that Marathi manus has voted in numbers in this election.
If we consider it was not marathi manus who votes for MNS then??? Then it is pure anti-incumbency against current set of parties. And tht includes Sena, BJP as well as Congi and NCP. So even tht is not good sign for UPA at state level.
So now u agree what I mean by "this is just trailer" ?! Picture to abhi baki hai mere dost.
What will happen in next few months noone knows. Right now MNS has taken stand to be equidistant from all. Will that stand be same for state assembly elections? Will supremos be able to do something to fix up whatever has gone wrong? Is Lotus going to suit more on Bow and Arrow or on Engine? And what about Hand and Clock? Will they be together? Current math will force them to be together, but will that be sufficient?
Plenty of questions and noone knows the answers. Definitely these questions are out of syllabus for common man. What I will do is will sit back and wait and watch the great political drama. Stage is state for multi-star 288 points game. Lets see who wins how many points!!
but it is not tht simple. If we consider the state assembly elections which are just around the corner, I guess this was just the trailer. And real drama is yet to begin.
The much talked MNS factor may be the tip of ice berg. MNS had candidates in 11 constituencies, of which they managed to be cause of defeat in 6 seat. What I mean by cause of defeat is MNS votes + NDA votes > UPA votes. The closest among these was Noerth-East Mumbai seat where NCP won by 3k votes (NCP: 2.13 lacs, BJP: 2.10 lacs, MNS: 1.94 lacs).
But real surprise came from South Mumbai. MNS secured 2nd number of votes against Deora. Although margin was so big that Sena + MNS were faling short of Deora's total, but still it is a great rsult for 3 yr old party. And which was the best result for them? Nashik: NCP 2.39 lacs, MNS: 2.17 lacs, Sena: 1.58 lacs.
These are mere facts. Even if Sena supremos do not agree to this, but MNS factor has hit NDA badly.
But, this is just one side of story. Consider from where these MNS votes hav come! What were marketing points for MNS? 1. Marathi Manus 2. Charisma of Raj Thakrey. Has MNS managed this success (or rathwer success in defeat) on basis of these two points alone? Are the votes all diverted from Sena's "marathi manus" backbone? If we consider this to be true, then UPA, better u do ur math again. Why is this marathi manus not ready to come to you? If Raj Thakrey would have been with Sena then current UPA- NDA score of 25-20 would have dramatically changed to 18 - 27. (May be that is the reason why Joshi Sir, Munde and Gadkari hinted about joining hands with MNS.) And the above said assumption also tells that Marathi manus has voted in numbers in this election.
If we consider it was not marathi manus who votes for MNS then??? Then it is pure anti-incumbency against current set of parties. And tht includes Sena, BJP as well as Congi and NCP. So even tht is not good sign for UPA at state level.
So now u agree what I mean by "this is just trailer" ?! Picture to abhi baki hai mere dost.
What will happen in next few months noone knows. Right now MNS has taken stand to be equidistant from all. Will that stand be same for state assembly elections? Will supremos be able to do something to fix up whatever has gone wrong? Is Lotus going to suit more on Bow and Arrow or on Engine? And what about Hand and Clock? Will they be together? Current math will force them to be together, but will that be sufficient?
Plenty of questions and noone knows the answers. Definitely these questions are out of syllabus for common man. What I will do is will sit back and wait and watch the great political drama. Stage is state for multi-star 288 points game. Lets see who wins how many points!!
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